Playoff Scenarios

With only two games left before the playoffs, I thought it would be fun to look at all the different playoff scenarios. Of course, because there are still two games left and we use points as the tiebreaker for quite a few scenarios, a lot of these playoff pictures are quite cloudy. But at the very least, we can all but eliminate a few owners from some races, and tell you who is in the driver's seat for others.

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS 

ELKINS CUP: 
Diesel: Wins out and he wins.
Dave: Won the head-to-head with Diesel, so he takes it if he wins out and Diesel loses once OR if he wins once, wins the division. and Diesel loses twice.
Sean: Has an outside shot by virtue of a head-to-head win against Diesel, but he would need to win out, win the division, and gain 150 points on Diesel in the points standings. So probably not.

LEAVE IT TO CHEWIE:
Travis: A win this week, and a loss by both Rocco and Jim and he clinches. If he wins out, he will also clinch.
Rocco: If he wins out, and Travis loses once, he clinches. If Travis loses both, and he wins only once he could still clinch if Jim or Lynn doesn't win the division.
Jim: Needs to win out, have Travis lose both games, and win the division
Mac: Needs to win the division and have both Rocco and Jim lose once
Lynn: Needs to win the division and have Travis lose twice but also win his division

DIVISIONAL RACES

 

FOUR GUYS ONE CUP:
This one is just too close to call, but hopefully should get a little more clear by next week. The only thing we can say for sure is that if Dave wins out he clinches the division, but if he loses one game, things get real murky.

CLAN ELKINS: 
Diesel: has clinched the division because everyone else in his division is terrible.

CHEWBACCA!!!:
Travis: If he beats Mac this week he clinches
Mac: Needs to win out, have Travis lose both games, and maintain his lead over Travis in points (+3)

LEAVE IT TO B-HALL: 
This divisional race is also really close and murky and will be a little more clear next week. B-Hall has been eliminated from contention due to tiebreaker scenarios, but everyone else still has a chance with Rocco sitting in the driver's seat.

POINT TITLE

IN SERIOUS CONTENTION:
Diesel: 1419 points
Jason: 1380 points (-39)

OUTSIDE CHANCE:
Dave: 1285 points (-134)
Sean: 1269 points (-150)

WILDCARD RACE

Because this is done by points, it is impossible to clinch anybody or to eliminate anybody due to miracles occasionally happening. Also, with most of the divisional titles still up for grabs, the point race gets even murkier. That all said, we can break down everyone's chances based on probability. I have grouped everyone into tiers and placed everyone's points relative to the projected final wildcard spot in parentheses.

IN LIKE FLINT:
Jason: 1380 points (+182)

PROBABLY DANCING:
Dave: 1285 points (+87)
Sean: 1269 points (+71)

NOT OUT OF THE WATER YET:
Lazarus: 1230 points (+32)
Rocco: 1211 points (+13)
Mac: 1198 points (Final Wildcard Spot)
Travis: 1195 points (-3)

DOWN BUT NOT OUT:
Jim: 1189 points (-9)
B-Hall: 1167 points (-31)
Dr. T: 1142 points (-56)

ELIMINATED

Josh, Chris, Phil, and Packy cannot win their divisions and are too far down in the points standings to have any shot at making the playoffs. Lynn is only still in contention because he somehow still has a shot at winning his division